Autores: Ernest Garcia, sociólogo, profesor de la Universidad de Valencia. Artículo:»Las políticas del cambio climático y las transiciones a sociedades pos carbono».
Alfonso Tarancón: Físico, profesor de la Universidad de Zaragoza Articulo: «Una mentira cómoda»
Categoría: Artículo – Sociología del medio ambiente-ecología-clima
Proponemos para la entrada del blog de Diciembre-2015, un tema que hoy está especialmente de actualidad, tras la celebración de la cumbre mundial del clima de Paris, una actualidad que se hace hoy muy patente en los medios, en las instituciones y en los gobiernos, pero que como por desgracia se ve en las encuestas y en los estudios sociales de opinión, no figura entre las principales preocupaciones de la sociedad.
-EL CAMBIO CLIMATICO-SOSTENIBILIDAD Y MEDIO AMBIENTE.- Es analizado con visiones diferentes, en los 2 artículos que presentamos de 2 amigos y compañeros con los que en los últimos años hemos trabajado en distintos proyectos y trabajos de campo para la investigación desde CR.
La Cumbre de París, ha concluido con un acuerdo final de 195 países, supone un pacto global a nivel mundial por el clima, sin precedentes, pacto que en principio entraría en vigor en 2020.En Paris, se han propuesto unos objetivos para rebajar las emisiones que contribuyen al calentamiento global, el pacto es vinculante para todos los firmantes, pero no se fijan cuotas máximas de emisión de gases y los objetivos de reducción no serán vinculantes. Por otro lado se sigue sin definir claramente los puntos que siempre han estado en el debate y en la negociación, el de «la diferenciación» y el de la financiación, más allá de algunas vaguedades y declaraciones de intenciones «de hacer un mayor esfuerzo y movilizar 100.000 millones de dólares anuales», y de hablar de «responsabilidades comunes pero diferenciadas».
Como dice Xavier Labandeira, catedrático de economía de la Universidad de Vigo, «El acuerdo inicia una nueva etapa, pero es solo un primer paso. La descarbonización de la economía será un proceso largo y complejo, con muchos perdedores, por lo que será necesario manejar el proceso de transición de forma inteligente, asegurando que los costes sean mínimos y que haya mecanismos compensatorios, para que prevalezca el interés global».
Ernest Garcia Sociólogo. Profesor de la Universidad de Valencia. Eris-Estudis de sostenibilidad-En su artículo «Engo Tuango Ringo Bingo- Las políticas del cambio climático y las transiciones a sociedades pos carbono- Publicado en VientoSur-nº142.Octubre 2015. Plantea desde la óptica de las ciencias sociales, algunas líneas argumentales «sociológicamente significativas», poniendo en cuestión «el globalismo» que quita poder al espacio cotidiano de la gente, los pueblos, las comunidades»….»Una política ambiental global sin alternativas locales seria una receta segura para el desastre.» planteando los limites de un gobierno mundial del medio ambiente…
En relación a la nueva cumbre comenta «…Se trata de alcanzar, por primera vez, un acuerdo universal y legalmente obligatorio que nos capacite para combatir eficazmente el cambio climático y para impulsar la transición hacia sociedades y economías resilientes y bajas en carbono…».
«La actividad humana ha llegado a ser tan grande que se ha hecho capaz de alterar significativamente la composición química de la atmosfera y, de ese modo, modificar el clima…».
«Para contener la alteración del clima a fin de reducir la probabilidad de que los efectos de la misma sean catastróficos resulta imprescindible reducir drásticamente las emisiones de Co2 y para ello se ha de reducir en proporciones similares el uso de combustibles sólidos…»
«Se trata de un cambio social de tal naturaleza que supone el transito a una nueva civilización…»
«Para transitar por un cambio social de esta naturaleza no basta con innovación tecnológica y política económica…Hay que tener debidamente en cuenta las modificaciones en la cultura, en las pautas de producción y de consumo, en las estructuras de la urbanización y ocupación del suelo, y en muchas otras cosas».
Alfonso Tarancón. Físico. Profesor de la Universidad de Zaragoza-en su artículo » UNA MENTIRA COMODA» Publicado en el Heraldo de Aragón el 4-12-2015. Propone que es vital un sano ejercicio de debate abierto, sin prejuicios y basado en hechos reales y datos objetivos.
Afirmando, que «El peligro del cambio climático se ha convertido en una especie de ideología oficial cuyos promotores eluden un verdadero debate científico y estigmatizan al disidente».
«No toda la comunidad científica piensa que estemos bajo los efectos de un apocalíptico cambio climático…» según él, «la realidad y la estadística vienen demostrando que las afirmaciones apocalípticas asumidas como verdades siguen sin cumplirse» y repasa alguna de estas afirmaciones, tratando de demostrar que no son ciertas:
«El agujero de ozono puede acabar con la vida en el Planeta». «La Antártida se derretirá en unas décadas» «El nivel del mar sube rápidamente». «Los glaciares del Himalaya desaparecerán en unos años» «La temperatura sube de forma galopante». «España será un desierto en los próximos años»
Afirmaciones que según el físico y profesor de la Universidad de Zaragoza, carecen de veracidad y de rigor científico
ENGO TUNGO RINGO BINGO: Las políticas del cambio climático y las transiciones a sociedades porscarbono.
Ernest Garcia. Sociólogo y miembro de ERI Estudis de Sostenibilitat en la Universidat de Valencia.
El titulo de este artículo tiene algo de irónico, pero no es inventado. Reproduce las denominaciones abreviadas de cuatro de los nueve grupos o sectores en que se clasifican los observadores acreditados de la sociedad civil para la cumbre del cambio climático en París (la COP21). Organizaciones no gubernamentales, respectivamente, ecologistas, sindicales, científicas y empresariales. De alguna manera, supongo, hay que poner orden en una babel donde se espera la presencia de cincuenta mil personas procedentes de las más diversas partes del mundo. De alguna manera hay que simplificar el barroquismo conceptual y lingüístico que inevitablemente tiende a imponerse en un contexto así.
El contexto político e ideológico
Pese a la dificultad de sacar algo en claro de la previsible barahúnda, es posible que la megareunión de París acabe convirtiéndose en una referencia en torno a la cual se generen propuestas y acciones de todo tipo, a todos los niveles y por todas partes. Ya ocurrió con la Cumbre de la Tierra de 1992, la de Río de Janeiro, que inspiró la aparición de Agendas 21 locales, sectoriales, nacionales, internacionales, como hongos, por todos los rincones del planeta. Poco más de dos meses antes de la conferencia de 2015 hay todavía mucha incertidumbre. Aún no se sabe si habrá acuerdos. Aún no se sabe si, caso de haberlos, serán significativos. Aún no se sabe si, caso de haberlos y ser significativos, serán un estímulo real para los gobiernos y las sociedades. Pero podría ser: como sucedió en Rio, confluyen ahora diversos factores que son propicios para proclamas solemnes y sonoras. La presidencia de Obama está próxima a su final: buen momento, pues, para dejar herencias duraderas, largamente proyectadas hacia el futuro, menos cortoplacistas de lo habitual. La Unión Europea necesita algo que restaure, aunque sea parcialmente, su deteriorada imagen, poniendo en ella algo de coherencia y de capacidad de propuesta. China está tomándose un respiro en su turboexpansión y le conviene ofrecer algo como contrapartida a su plena aceptación en tanto que interlocutor de primer nivel en los foros internacionales.
El contexto parece ahora más propicio que en la década precedente. Comparémoslo, por ejemplo, con Johannesburgo 2002. Aquella reunión en que la prolongación del impulso dado diez años antes a un “desarrollo sostenible” se convirtió en una misión imposible al topar con el trío de las Azores. No había mucho que hacer en medio de una guerra en marcha y de un espíritu bélico más en marcha todavía, con los poderes planetarios convencidos de que un jodido dióxido de carbono no es quien para poner trabas a la civilización occidental y con Powell, el jefe de la delegación de los EEUU, llegado con el encargo de hacer saber a los campesinos africanos que si no aceptaban las semillas transgénicas de Monsanto les dejarían morir de hambre. No es que, objetivamente, en la realidad social y económica, las cosas estén mejor ahora, más bien al contrario; pero las referencias políticas parecen más favorables.
A pesar de los buenos augurios, la historia de la Agenda 21, la historia de cómo en las dos últimas décadas los hechos han quedado muy por detrás de las declaraciones, pesa como una losa. Levantarla requiere que los objetivos sean más ambiciosos y la retórica más grandolocuente. Y nada de esto falta a la cita.
Una ojeada a los objetivos. Se trata de alcanzar, por primera vez, un acuerdo universal y legalmente obligatorio que “nos capacite para combatir eficazmente el cambio climático y para impulsar la transición hacia sociedades y economías resilientes y bajas en carbono”. Suena bien.. Invita a exclamar: “¡Por fin, eso es lo que hacía falta!”. De hecho, hace falta un oído entrenado para percibir las vacilaciones, las ausencias y la tendencia a poner la venda antes de la herida. La sustitución de “sostenibilidad” por “resilencia”, iniciada hace mas de una década y ya prácticamente completada, indica que la esperanza en la mitigación está casi extinguida, y que muchas de las ilusiones se dirigen a la adaptación: en la neohabla de la política verdosa. “resilencia”, esa palabra confusamente importada de la ecología y de la psicología, transmite subrepticiamente este mensaje: ya no hay nada que hacer, sálvese quien pueda. “ Bajo-en-carbono” revela, sin quererlo, que la famosa transición energética continua siendo más una categoría del pensamiento mágico-religioso que cualquier otra cosa (Kunstler,2013): comienza a aceptarse que la era de los combustibles fósiles se acerca inexorablemente a su fin y se sabe – aunque no puede decirse- que nadie tiene la menor idea de cómo podría mantenerse sin ellos un mundo económica y demográficamente expansivo. Y solo son unas muestras. Una lectura minuciosa de los documentos oficiales asusta bastante, la verdad. ¡Y qué decir de las declaraciones! El calentamiento global es material de primera para que los lideres world-class digan la suya. Todos unidos a fin de librar la batalla para salvar el planeta… y cuando haga falta. En su país, Obama presiona sobre la brecha abierta entre demócratas republicanos sobre este asunto (París, 2015). La izquierda de discurso alternativo ha acelerado un poco más su lentísimo descubrimiento de que el cambio climático resulta bastante molesto para la acumulación ampliada del capital (Klein, 2015). Hasta el Papa de Roma se ha invitado con cierta audacia al coloquio (Bergoglio, 2015). Y en París, faltaría más, han organizado una Cumbre de las Conciencias, en la que no ha faltado casi ningún líder espiritual, de Arnold Schwarzenegger a Zaz, pasando por el cardenal Turkson, Kofi Annan y Vandana Shiva.
En fin, veremos. Lo que ya resulta claro es que 2015 no está siendo un buen año para el negacionismo, para quienes se empeñan en poner en duda que el cambio climático es una asunto serio y que la acción humana está detrás del mismo.
Otra cosa es la discusión sobre el alcance y los condicionamientos de una política a escala mundial en esta materia. Las ciencias sociales han llegado al debate con notable retraso y, en lo esencial, continúan merodeando por zonas más o menos marginales. Sin embargo, han producido ya razones e información suficientes para comprender que una cumbre planetaria, incluso si llegase a concretar acuerdos prácticos, seguiría –en el mejor de los casos- siendo bastante menos de lo necesario (Ostrom 2009; Dunlap y Brulle, 2015; Hoer-Dixon, 2010; Urry, 2013; Heinberg, 2015). Resumiré a continuación algunas de las líneas por las que circulan los argumentos. Algunas de esas líneas son bastante abstractas. Otras, más concretas y pragmáticas. Todas son sociológicamente significativas.
Los límites de un gobierno mundial del medio ambiente.
La idea de que es posible solucionar los problemas de la crisis ecológica mediante un gobierno mundial del medio ambiente es inherentemente problemática. Y eso no cambia para nada si en vez de gobierno se dice gobernanza. Incluso puede ser interesantemente contradictoria, como buena parte del ecologismo se atrevía a mantener en voz alta hace solo veinte años (Sachs, 1993). Ahora, a fuerza de algunos golpes y de mucho desdén, el volumen de esa voz ha bajado mucho aunque las razones se mantienen en pie, accesibles para quien opte por no ignorarlas. Esas razones remiten en parte a principios políticos democráticos y en parte a rasgos sistémicos.
El aspecto político lo resumió Shiva (1993:p.36) conmucha claridad:
No creo que la gente de carne y hueso habite en el espacio global. La gente de verdad vive y trabaja en casas, pueblos, comunidades, situaciones concretas. El globalismo es una forma de quitarle poder a ese espacio cotidiano y ponerlo en manos de otros seres vivos y concretos, con sus propias limitaciones, prejuicios, e intereses creados, pero cuyo alcance y control va más allá de sí mismos. De modo que el globalismo es básicamente una forma de dar poder político a unos pocos e incapacitar a la gente de todas partes.
En efecto, los actores de la mundialización de la gestión ambiental son típicamente los gobiernos, las instituciones internacionales, las grandes organizaciones no gubernamentales, los medios de comunicación y los medios financieros e industriales, con tendencia a formar un complejo estable (y a desarrollar así la confianza mutua que permite tomarse algunas libertades; normalizando, por ejemplo, los alegres apelativos mencionados en el título). También típicamente, las poblaciones y las organizaciones de base están ausentes.
Boulding (1993) apuntó directamente al núcleo del conflicto sistémico que afecta a toda política ambiental del carácter mundial. Recordando la analogía de la astronave Tierra que él mismo había contribuido poderosamente a difundir, señaló que el problema principal de la comparación es que, a diferencia de la nave espacial, la cual es una maquina que puede ser gobernada por un comandante. La Biosfera es el sistema más alejado de una economía planificada que pueda imaginarse, un sistema radicalmente inadecuado para ser sometido a un centro de control. Y si sumamos la incertidumbre de la historia a las dinámicas no lineales de la vida todo se complica todavía más; y entonces se nos viene encima la advertencia de Georgescu-Roegen (1975:p.369):
…quien crea que puede diseñar un plan para la salvación ecológica de la especie humana no comprende la naturaleza de la evolución, y ni siquiera de la historia, que es la de una lucha permanente bajo formas siempre nuevas, no la de un proceso físico-químico predecible y controlable como los de cocer un huevo o enviar un cohete a la luna.
¿Por qué entonces; pese a estos y a muchos otros recordatorios sensatos en el mismo sentido, se vuelve una y otra vez a hacer planes, a definir programas, a seleccionar objetivos? ¿Por qué esos planes y programas atraen más la atención cuanto mayor es la escala a que se formulan La respuesta es sencilla: porque los seres humanos somos así, porque no podemos funcionar de otra manera. La acción social es intencional, guiada por una percepción de las cosas y un propósito. El comportamiento humano consciente viene precedido por una definición de la situación. El poder fascina y las grandes exhibiciones del mismo atraen fuertemente la atención. Los planes políticos y los programas de acción contra el cambio climático cumplen esas funciones. Son inevitables e imprescindibles. Se trata, sencillamente, de que conviene ser conscientes de sus límites.
Puesto que existen poderes de alcance mundial, la tensión para evitar que se desconecten por completo de las vidas reales de la gente y los conflictos que se generan al cruzar sus trayectorias con las seguidas por instituciones con ámbitos de acción más reducidos (estatales, locales, etcétera) son factores que contribuyen a mantener una cierta flexibilidad en el cambio social, a conservar la viabilidad evolutiva. Una política ambiental global sin alternativas locales sería una receta segura para el desastre. Puesto que las instituciones sociales son dispositivos reflexivos, que funcionan por ensayo y error, solo pueden ser sostenibles si preservan espacios libres de su dominio, en los que inevitables errores pueden corregirse. Si un gobierno mundial del medio ambiente llegara a ser lo bastante poderoso para anulas las trayectorias divergentes, la única cosa que tal gobierno podría asegurar es una catástrofe ambiental mundial.
Hay que contar con la existencia de algún tipo de política internacional sobre el clima. Por ahora es inevitable, así que mantener la tensión para controlarla socialmente, revisarla y ajustarla una y otra vez es conveniente. En cualquier caso, hacerse la ilusión de que el cambio climático va a seguir fielmente las líneas trazadas por un programa político seria una desmesurada exhibición de orgullo antropocéntrico.
Los límites impuestos por los poderes existentes.
Las políticas del cambio climático, sea cual sea su escala geográfica, encuentran su límite más obvio e inmediato en las presiones ejercidas por los poderes existentes, especialmente las grandes corporaciones y otros mamuts económicos. ¿Hay que romper con ellos? ¿Hay que llegar a compromisos? Está claro que espacios como la COP21 se orientan a esto último. Por ello, tienden a seleccionar medidas contra el cambio climático que resulten aceptables para los intereses de esos interlocutores privilegiados (los cuales, de hecho, intervienen muy activamente en las negociaciones y en los debates, directamente o a través de sus servidores políticos o científicos).
La literatura que plantea las cosas dentro de ese marco ilustra muy bien acerca de la drástica restricción de opciones impuesta por tales compromisos. Giddens (2009), por ejemplo, sugiere que la política para hacer frente al cambio climático debe, en primer lugar, combinar el mercado con el Estado (es decir, introducir algo de planificación y algunas regulaciones) y, en segundo lugar, no hacer caso a los verdes, ignorando en particular la propensión de estos hacia la democracia participativa, la descentralización, la no-violencia, el principio de precaución y la conservación de la naturaleza (Garcia, 2012).
Las previsiones venidas de este lado tienen múltiples efectos. Comentare solo uno de ellos; provocan, o por lo menos lo refuerzan y lo profundizan, un marcado desequilibrio entre la dimensión atribuida a los problemas y a las medidas propuestas para hacerles frente. Es frecuente que los documentos sobre la crisis ecológica y el calentamiento global, incluyendo los documentos oficiales, se refieran a grandes cambios sociales en relación con todo ello. A menudo incluso se compra el transito a una sociedad no basada en los combustibles fósiles con la revolución neolítica y la revolución industrial. Es decir, se pone la situación actual al nivel de las grandes crisis de civilización que abrieron el camino, en la historia universal, a las sociedades agrarias y a las sociedades industriales. Un ejemplo, tomado de una de las reuniones de expertos en el proceso preparatorio de la Cumbre de París: en julio de 2015, Chris Field, , copresidente de la confederación científica Our Common Future under Climate Change (CFCC), resumió la situación afirmando que “nos estamos moviendo hacia una era poscarbono” (CFCC15a) “Civilización” y “era” son grandes palabras.
Ocurre entonces que hay una cierta descompensación entre la grandilocuencia con que se acostumbra a describir los cambios sociales inminentes y el inventario de medidas que suele invocarse para permitir que esos cambios sean adecuadamente gobernados y llevados a cabo sin traumas. Por seguir refiriéndonos a la mencionada conferencia científica de París, su Declaración Final afirma que la transición “requerirá un abanico de acciones, incluyendo invertir en investigación, desarrollo y transferencia tecnológica; retirar subsidios a las energía fósil y poner precio al carbono” (CFCC15b). El problema es que un cambio social llevado a cabo con algo de I+D (o incluso con mucho I+D), y con algunas medidas de política económica (incluso si esas medidas son audaces) no parece que pueda ser un alcance tan grande como el que sugieren las invocaciones a una nueva era o a una nueva civilización. Grandes palabras, medidas pequeñas.
Cambio climático, transición poscarbono, translimitación ecológica y crisis de civilización.
La actividad humana ha llegado a ser tan grande que se ha hecho capaz de alterar significativamente la composición química de la atmosfera y, de este modo, modificar el clima. Dado que los márgenes en que es posible la vida dependen de equilibrios delicados, es seguro que dicha modificación tendrá consecuencias importantes. Y es sumamente probable que algunas menos de esas consecuencias resulten muy desagradables. Creo que podemos estar razonablemente seguros de toso esto y que, más o menos en esos términos, el consenso científico es inusualmente sólido. La norma según la cual las consecuencias serian soportables hasta un aumento de dos grados es en buena parte política, pero de alguna manera hay que introducir un parámetro que sirva de referencia a los cálculos.
Para contener la alteración del clima a fin de reducir la probabilidad de que los efectos de la misma sean catastróficos resulta imprescindible reducir drásticamente la emisión de CO2 y para ello se ha de reducir en proporciones similares el uso de combustibles fósiles (algo que, de todos modos, habría que hacer más temprano que tarde debido a la proximidad del pico o máximo histórico por año en la producción de esos combustibles, en primer lugar petróleo). Es decir, combatir el cambio climático supone asumir la inminencia de la transición a una sociedad poscarbono (o simplemente transición poscarbono). Se trata de un cambio social de tal naturaleza que supone el transito a una nueva civilización, pues las técnicas básicas de producción de energía son uno de los factores definitorios de las civilizaciones: El control del fuego hizo posibles las sociedades agraria y los combustibles fósiles la enorme expansión de la sociedad industrial en el siglo XX. La transición poscarbono no es pues una mera transición energética, no es la sustitución de unas tecnologías por otras con todo lo demás igual, no consiste en cambiar los coches de gasolina por coches eléctricos mientras se mantiene inalterada la forma de vida.
La transición poscarbono es una parte del proceso de cambio social que viene impuesto por el hecho de que la civilización industrial ha superado los límites naturales del crecimiento, entrando así en una fase de translimitación (overshoot), algo que según todos los indicios ha ocurrido a lo largo de la segunda mitad del siglo XX. El estado de translimitación es necesariamente transitorio, insostenible, como se ha dado en decir. Representa el climax de la civilización industrial, que ha de dar paso a una fase de descenso. Ese descenso ha de incluir en mayor o menor medida un decrecimiento de las magnitudes físicas de la sociedad, demográficas y económicas, hasta situarse de nuevo en niveles compatibles con la capacidad de carga del planeta. El problema del cambio climático tiene que ver con la superación de esa capacidad en una aspecto concreto, la fijación del carbono, pero hay muchos otros: la provisión de recursos minerales, energéticos y no energéticos; la relación entre población y producción de alimentos; la extinción de especies; la alteración del ciclo del nitrógeno y de otros elementos; la degradación de diversas funciones útiles de los ecosistemas, etcétera. Todo eso esta interrelacionado: La translimitación es un asunto sistémico. El hecho de que el calentamiento global haya concentrado los foco de la política y de los mass media es algo circunstancial (y ni siquiera sé si se trata de algo deseable, pero que importa).
La salida de la fase de translimitación está cargada de riesgo e incertidumbre. Tal vez se produzca de manera ordenada, más o menos organizada y voluntaria, dando paso a una sociedad menos expansiva y menos acelerada que la actual pero capaz de mantener una vida civilizada y unos niveles suficientes de bienestar. Tal vez tenga lugar a través de un colapso catastrófico, que ocasione una simplificación súbita y radical, con formas extremas de conflicto social y descomposición institucional.
Para transitar por un cambio social de esta naturaleza no basta con innovación tecnológica y política económica. Aquí, radica, quizás, la limitación esencial de las políticas climáticas que se discuten en reuniones como la de París. Los fuertes condicionamientos bajo los que tales reuniones tienen lugar impiden tener debidamente en cuenta las modificaciones en la cultura, en las pautas de producción y de consumo, en las estructuras de la urbanización y ocupación del suelo, en muchas otras cosas. Como se dice con razón: esto lo cambia todo.
Para concluir
La atmosfera ha venido siendo un sumidero de acceso libre e incontrolado para gases de efecto invernadero. La alteración del clima producida por la concentración excesiva de los mismos es un caso especial de tragedia de los bienes públicos no controlados. La política del cambio climático, entonces, gira en torno a los controles que conviene introducir. En general, como ya aclaró Hardin (1993:pp. 218-219, hay tres sistemas de regulación y control (el mercado, el Estado y la comunidad) y no hay un criterio teórico general para decidir cuál de ellos es el mejor en cada caso concreto. De hecho, las políticas de cambio climático existentes combinan de una u otra forma elementos de los tres sistemas: mercados de emisiones; cuotas, tasas o cartillas de racionamiento; acuerdos y contrapesos voluntariamente asumidos por la “comunidad” internacional. Las dosis respectivas, los dispositivos para administrarlas y los diseños para monitorizar los efectos definen el campo de juego para dichas políticas. Las cuales, a su vez, son una pieza parcial de un proceso de cambio social excepcional. O, dicho de otro modo: la COP21 no es otra cosa que un episodio más en esa lucha permanente en formas siempre nuevas a la que se refería Georgescu-Roegen. Solo el tiempo dirá si este episodio concreto resulta realmente significativo.
UNA MENTIRA CÓMODA
Alfonso Tarancón: Físico, profesor de la Universidad de Zaragoza.
El peligro del cambio climático se ha convertido en una especie de ideología oficial, cuyos promotores eluden un verdadero debate científico y estigmatizan al disidente.
Valga este artículo no para convencer a nadie, sino para dejar constancia de que no toda comunidad científica piensa que estemos bajo los efectos de un apocalíptico cambio climático. Por otra parte, no estoy seguro de que lo que afirmo sea la verdad absoluta. De lo que sí estoy convencido es que la asfixiante ideología dominante del cambio climático tiene mucho de acientífico y de que es necesario debatir sobre el tema sin descalificar a los que disentimos.
La doctrina del cambio climático se generalizó con las actividades de Al Gore, especialmente tras su película ‘El cambio climático, una verdad incómoda’. Al Gore, desde la vicepresidencia de Estados Unidos, se negó a reducir la emisión de C02 para luchar contra el cambio climático. Solo después de fracasar en su asalto al despacho oval, tal San Pablo redivivo, se convirtió a la nueva religión, ganó el Nobel, tachó a todos los que no quieren reducir las emisiones de herejes y se embarcó en el negocio de la sostenibilidad, para desaparecer después acusado de prácticas corruptas. Hoy no hay gobernante, político, organización no gubernamental o empresa multinacional que se precie que no diga que quiere paliar el cambio climático. No es pues algo rebelde, rompedor, es más una cuestión de ‘establishment’, de cumbres mundiales, motivo de abrazos, consensos y subvenciones archimillonarias; definitivamente, no le queda nada de incómodo. Falta saber si le queda algo de verdad.
Pero ¿existe el cambio climático?
El mero hecho de plantearlo es ya motivo para que uno reciba el estigma del ‘primo de Rajoy’. Pues bien, la ciencia ha de mirar a la realidad, a los datos, no al criterio o a la ideología dominante. La realidad y la estadística –tal vez la ciencia más sólida y tozuda– vienen demostrando que las afirmaciones apocalípticas asumidas como verdades sin necesidad de demostración siguen sin cumplirse. Repasemos algunas.
«El agujero de ozono puede acabar con la vida en el planeta». Así como suena se ha dicho miles de veces. Hoy el crecimiento del agujero de ozono ha desaparecido como amenaza. Quien afirma que su estabilidad se debe a la falta de emisión de gases que atacan al ozono se equivoca: salvo en el primer mundo, en el resto se emiten como antes, si no más.
«La Antártida se derretirá en unas décadas». El hielo de la Antártida no deja de aumentar. Tan es así que sesudos científicos llevan años estudiando el ‘raro’ suceso y solo se han quedado tranquilos tras demostrar fehacientemente (con un ordenador…) que es debido al cambio climático. Curioso.
«El nivel del mar sube rápidamente». A estas alturas, según previsiones anteriores, el mar debería haber subido del orden de un metro. No es así. Algunos afirman cosas tan amenazantes como que el cambio climático ha producido un aumento galopante del nivel del mar en el Mediterráneo… de unos dos milímetros. Esta cantidad es estadísticamente irrelevante, medida con un error que la hace compatible con cero.
«Los glaciares del Himalaya desaparecerán en unos años». Esto se afirmaba hace más de una década. Como no ha sido así, ahora se dice que «el retroceso de los glaciares se ha retrasado». Bueno, es una forma de agarrarse a algo que no existe.
«La temperatura sube de forma galopante». Los más acérrimos defensores del cambio climático constatan que ha subido 0,4 grados en los últimos cien años. No 5 ni 10 grados, tan solo 0,4. Pero incluso esto no está claro. Hay fuentes de errores estadísticos (medidas de los equipos, cambios en ubicaciones) y sistemáticos (proximidad a las grandes ciudades, necesidad de obtener resultados positivos por convencimiento psicológico, fondos para la investigación…) que convierten el dato en discutible. Este año ha hecho calor, pero es lo que tiene la estadística: unos años se está por encima de la media y otros por debajo. Si tenemos que basar la ciencia del clima en discusiones de ascensor sobre el tiempo, estamos perdidos. Incluso son conocidos los intercambios de emails entre miembros del IPCC para manipular datos que demostraban que no había tal subida de temperaturas.
«España será un desierto en los próximos años». Afirmación de los años noventa. Hoy en día la masa forestal ha crecido un 40%, debido a cambios económicos que han evitado la tala continuada de bosques. Un 40% de masa forestal adicional contradice la temida desertización.
No cansaré al lector con más anuncios catastrofistas, pues no hay actividad humana que hoy no se vea teñida con la terminología del cambio climático. La ciencia ha contribuido a ello en gran medida. En un entorno siempre escaso en fondos y medios, una garantía para obtenerlos es poner en marcha proyectos que hablen del medio ambiente. Estudios con conclusiones patéticas (el hambre y las enfermedades en África son debidas al cambio climático); otros, despilfarradores de miles de millones de euros (enterramiento de CO2). No es fácil un debate serio en un ambiente pseudorreligioso e inquisitorial, donde cualquiera que habla del tema es tratado de lacayo de las multinacionales del petróleo o de incompetente. El cambio climático se ha erigido en algo axiomático (verdades que no deben ser demostradas) y su defensa, en una nueva religión, una verdad absoluta que sirve de hecho a los intereses de los gobiernos y las multinacionales. Y que tiene cautivo a lo más progresista de nuestra juventud. Es vital un sano ejercicio de debate abierto, sin prejuicios y basado en hechos reales y datos objetivos. En suma, un debate científico.
Queremos seguir viendo el cielo, ver a los pájaros volar.
La actividad humana incontrolada daña el planeta y nos daña a todos.
CR SUGERENCIAS DICIEMBRE 2015
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DISCO
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DISCO
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LIBRO NOVELA
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LIBRO NOVELA
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LIBRO ENSAYO
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LIBRO ENSAYO
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EXPOSICION
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PELICULA
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PELICULA
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CR NOTICIAS DICIEMBRE 2015
LA ESCRITORA SVETLANA ALEXIEVIC, HA SIDO GALARDONADA CON EL PREMIO NOBEL DE LITERATURA 2015. (Svetlana ,escribe sobre la Historia Oral)
Desde Cr, queremos manifestar nuestra alegria por la concesion de este premio que sirve para reivindicar la historia oral, no solo como una metodología valida y actual para la investigación social y de mercados, sino como una excelente disciplina que también se manifiesta en su vertiente literaria.
A continuacion, reproducimos algunos extractos del articulo de Andrea Aguilar aparecido en El País -Ideas .Domingo 6 de Diciembre de 2015-
«…En un lugar entre la academia, el periodismo y la literatura, emerge la historia oral como una rama de las ciencias sociales dedicada a la indagación de la memoria a partir de documentos directos..».
«Escribo la historia de los sentimientos, soy historiadora del alma… dice Alexievich.»
«La historia oral es una disciplina de las ciencias sociales en las que convergen la sociología, la psicología, la lingüística, la etnografía y la antropología, según el académico Alessandro Portelli…La historia oral sirve para reivindicar recuerdos y memoria como parte del cuerpo mismo de la historia, un relato en el que a menudo quedaban excluidas las mujeres, la población mas humilde o las minorías raciales…Las fuentes orales y no solo las escritas merecían un papel, aunque fuera con transcripción de por medio»
«las fuentes orales son el complemento ideal de la estadística porque hay que ir a las personas, comenta Mercedes Vilanova, catedrática emérita de la Universidad de Barcelona y figura fundamental en el movimiento internacional de la historia oral.
Vilanova explica la diferencia con el periodismo: Nosotros preguntamos en busca de la memoria. Nuestra modalidad trata de cómo se ha vivido algo, es el cómo contamos, como se siente la emoción, el pasado del tiempo, la experiencia.
Y el 50% es del entrevistado y el otro 50% del entrevistador, hay que saber preguntar…»
LA FUNDACION ISABEL GEMIO, organiza en este mes de Diciembre, un fin de semana solidario, UNAS JORNADAS EN APOYO A LAS ENFERMEDADES RARAS. Para más información Web Fundación Isabel Gemio.
EL 18 DE DICIEMBRE SE CELEBRA EL DIA NACIONAL DE LA ESCLEROSIS MULTIPLE, con motivo de este día, la Asociacion de Esclerosis múltiple, desarrollara diferentes actos y campañas para informar y recordar a la sociedad la existencia de esta enfermedad que afecta en España a mas de 47.000 personas, fundamentalmente personas jóvenes.. Web de la asociación de esclerosis múltiple de España.
Desde CR queremos manifestar nuestro apoyo y solidaridad con estas iniciativas.
Aportar un donativo, es aportar fondos para la investigación y ayudar a buscar una cura para estas enfermedades
LA NAVIDEÑA FERIA DE LAS CULTURAS.
EL AYUNTAMIENO DE MADRID HA ORGANIZADO LA NAVIDEÑA FERIA INTERNACIONAL DE LAS CULTURAS, Una iniciativa que se desarrolla en el Patio Central de Conde Duque, entre el 17 y el 22 diciembre Ya sea por la Navidad cristiana o por el solsticio de invierno pagano, esta época del año es festejada alrededor de todo el mundo por todo tipo de Culturas
FELIZ DIVERSIDAD 2015
FELIZ AÑO NUEVO DIVERSO 2016
Estimado Alberto, quiero darte las gracias por la publicacion de mi articulo sobre el Cambio Climatico. Es un tema en el que hay que hacer un ejercicio de valentia y de apertura de miras para publicarlo. Gracias por el aire fresco de tu Blog.
Alfonso
En respuesta a la visión escéptica de Alfonso Tarancón…estoy en total desacuerdo con su planteamiento e incluso por su visión, que sólo invita a desprestigiar a todos los esfuerzos de los movimientos ecologistas y de los que realmente insisten en que el cambio de actitud tome forma y concierne tanto nuestra forma de tratar a Medio Ambiente como a nuestros vecinos.
Primero, en vez de perder el tiempo en consideraciones estadísticas como el aumento de la temperatura mundial, mejor hablar con los agricultores que están en primera línea del frente. Por ejemplo, nos contarán lo de la sequía (mirad los datos actuales, en récord histórico), nos hablarán de tremendo calor que, por ejemplo, en Valencia afectan tremendamente a los frutales (naranjos). Tendría muchos links que enviar al respecto, testimoniales de lo que está pasando en España a causa del calentamiento, y del cambio climático, es decir que en zonas dónde antes no llovía llueve y lo contrario aunque lo que más afecta es el calor. No nos vayamos lejos ni nos perdamos demasiado en consideraciones filosóficas, políticas, o estadísticas. Hablemos con nuestro mundo rural. Por otro lado, habría que escuchar un poco más la radio para oír que hay islas que actualmente están desapareciendo hasta tal punto que se está estudiando el estatus legal de «refugiado climático» por gran movimiento de masas que esto ya está generando. En el Pacífico Occidental, el hundimiento parece más acelerado que en cualquier otro lugar. Claro que, esto nos pilla lejos…. https://actualidad.rt.com/sociedad/171337-islas-cambio-climatico-calentamiento-global
En cuánto al continente Antártico, un artículo del País nos lo explica muy bien: «La pérdida de hielo es enorme, unos 60.000 millones de toneladas al año desde 2010. Pero aún está lejos de los 110.000 millones anuales que pierden los glaciares del Mar de Amundsen. Si se les restan las alrededor de 70 gigatoneladas que gana la zona occidental de la Antártida, el balance es de una pérdida neta de hielo.» – Os dejo el link: http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/05/23/ciencia/1432373251_539656.html
Todo está al alcance de los que quieran interesarse por el tema. Lo que hay que hacer el mover el culete y concienciarse, de una vez por todas, que nuestra TIERRA necesita la misma cosa que el SER HUMANO: una sóla palabra mágica que acabaría con todos los males, y es…RESPETO.
Y como todo el mundo sabe, el respeto empieza por uno mismo. Empecemos los cambios aquí, ahora, con nosotros mismos, en nuestra casa, nuestros hábitos. Fuera la desidia, la indiferencia, la despreocupación. Intentemos aportar un granito de arena en la mejora de la calidad del aire, del agua, de la tierra. Sin olvidar, nunca, el respeto a los ANIMALES que comparten nuestra aventura.
Y para terminar con una nota positiva, mientras seamos capaces de reunirnos para hablar, demostraremos nuestra voluntad de mejorar y no de pelear. Así que. bien a las Cumbres, aunque ya sabemos que allí van mandatarios con intereses diversos. Para esto están los grupos de presión, los ecologistas, organizaciones como GREENPEACE, (sólo por nombrar la más conocida), que ayudan a que las cosas se lleven a cabo DE VERDAD. Apoyémosles y démosle su merecido RESPETO también a ellas, que hacen una gran labor, a través de sus miles de voluntarios altruistas, que bajan a la calle, despegándose del sofá y de su confort y que se mojan (a veces literalmente), y a veces arriesgan su vida, porque son conscientes de que discutiendo de la relativa importancia de la media global de temperatura, de que si hay o no cambio climático o de si hay isla de plástico o no en el Atlántico Norte, las cosas simplemente NO AVANZAN.
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